On 5 March, the European Commission is due to unveil the conclusions of the strategic dialogue it launched at the end of January on the future of the European automotive industry. The resulting action plan should deliver support for an industry under enormous pressure that is responsible, directly and indirectly, for 13 million jobs and generates annual turnover of more than €1 trillion (7 % of the EU's GDP). This ECA newsletter takes a look in the rear-view mirror and invites you to explore or rediscover the still highly topical and relevant reports the EU auditors have published on cars.

The aim of the EU’s climate strategy is to achieve net zero by 2050. Curtailing or eliminating emissions from passenger cars is an essential element in the strategy: as well as reducing carbon emissions from cars with combustion engines, alternative fuel options must be explored and battery-electric vehicles need to be adopted by the mass market. ECA audits have concluded that the first aim has failed so far, the second seems unviable on a large scale, and the third threatens to prove costly for both EU industry and consumers.

Reducing cars’ emissions: easier said than done

For this report, published in January last year, the auditors found that, prior to 2020, CO₂ emissions from passenger cars had fallen only when measured in laboratory conditions. Since then, new testing methods have narrowed the gap between laboratory and real-world emissions. However, the real on-the-road emissions of conventional cars have not dropped significantly. More efficient engines have been offset by heavier cars (about +10 % on average) and the resulting need for greater engine power (about +25 %).

Alternative fuels: a foggy future

Alternative fuels, such as e-fuels or hydrogen, are often mentioned as possible successors to petrol and diesel. But, as we saw in December 2023 in our audit on biofuels, they are not yet credible or reliable as a large-scale alternative. The main issues: the quantity of fuel available, production costs and environmental impact.

Electric vehicles: the EU conundrum

EU countries are struggling to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, and the road ahead is full of potholes. What we concluded in our June 2023 audit report is beyond dispute: the European battery industry is lagging behind globally. In consequence, to achieve its goal of a zero-emission fleet by 2035 the EU may have no choice but to rely heavily on non-EU batteries and electric vehicles, to the detriment of the European automotive industry and workforce.

You can find a more comprehensive overview of our work on automotive topics on the ECA website.